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Construction machinery industry growth fell gradually, the development still has space!
Category：Enterprise News
Publish：2012-11-21
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For the mechanical engineering section, the current market concerns mainly two : in the long run, China's fixed asset investment reduction, and this will certainly affect the whole construction machinery industry growth; the short term, construction machinery listing Corporation for accounts receivable and the financial cost of rapid growth and the hidden risk.
" I don't understand this industry market. Construction machinery industry, especially the oligopoly has formed the company, not the lack of space for future development. " The five largest of a fund's investment director told reporters. He thought that he could put the caterpillar as example to study the domestic construction machinery listing Corporation.
This year, although the construction machinery sector as a whole to glide considerably, brokerage views are quite cautious, but the concrete machinery ultra-expected growth also brought to market some expectations.
There is still room for development
" The domestic engineering machinery, the total market value of only 196500000000 yuan, while the mechanical giant caterpillar in 2011 sales revenue of USD $60100000000. " The listed investment director said.
Over the past ten years fixed assets investment continued high growth achievements of the construction machinery industry, while four trillion yuan stimulus is to let this industry reached the top. The market generally questioned without a strong stimulus, engineering machinery is afraid will no longer. This is a concern, but in the market downturn, pessimism may be infinite zoom.
However, the global machinery giant caterpillar very bullish on China, and actively to build a plant in china. This company thinks, Chinese city is changed had decided to 2025, China still need to build more roads, airports and other infrastructure. Although the caterpillar is also facing great pressure on the stock, but the win in China as part of the company in 2011 to 2015, one of eight strategic plan.
Shun securities in the engineering is mechanical 2012 the strategy report predicts, to the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan " period, China Construction machinery industry sales will reach 900000000000 yuan, an average annual growth rate of about 17%. In the last 5 years the average growth rate of 27.5% and 23.8% of the average growth rate over the past 10 years, with the future of the industry overall scale unceasing expansion, growth rate will come down gradually, industry in the long term will enter the stage of steady growth.
In addition, the domestic engineering machinery oligopoly pattern is more and more obvious. For example, in 196500000000 yuan of the total market capitalisation, Sany, two companies ZOOMLION's market capitalization reached 138700000000 yuan, up to 70 percent.
It is worth mentioning that, along with the Sany, ZOOMLION and other companies to move towards the internationalization, product quality and brand awareness is also rising, a lot of domestic market share was recaptured. For example, from Gao Hua Securities data showed, in all of the major categories of construction machinery, excavator is the only one still by foreign brands dominate the market, but in recent years, with domestic manufacturers to quickly catch up, products and the overall development has been to promote local distributors manufacturers share from 23% in 2006 to 40% in 2011.
The short term, a mechanical engineering major worry is the cash pressure. Haitong Securities research that, due to the early lever amplification advance sales, accounts receivable in the years 2010 ~2011 once rapid growth, the domestic construction machinery industry average operating cash flow since 2011 has been negative, causing the industry cash tense situation. Trade accounts receivable and revenue ratio has exceeded the 2005 financial distress and the end of 2008 financial crisis highs.
The rapid growth of concrete machinery
Since this year, although the mechanical engineering section main listing Corporation net profit drop on average more than 25% year-on-year growth of 21.5%, but ZOOMLION. Among them, the profit contribution of huge concrete machinery.
The first half of the year, concrete machinery market strong, weak excavator market. Take ZOOMLION income proportion 58% concrete machinery income increases 52%, form the powerful support for the ZOOMLION outstanding achievement growth.
Concrete machinery, including concrete pump, concrete pump ( pump, pump ), concrete mixing station, concrete mixing Transporter and cloth rod, wide application field and the application in the engineering construction in later period, short-term new construction slowdown effect. According to the 2011 data, plate in pump and mixer with larger proportion, accounted for 57%.
SG Securities believes that 2012, pump, mixer truck sales ( domestic and export ) probability of general and keep balance basically 2011, even to achieve positive growth. Gao Hua Securities also judged, is expected in the three quarter, engineering machinery and equipment industry will from last year second half of the year 's low base a slow recovery.
Haitong Securities have different point of view, the " industry growth is slowing, up to wait for policy " mentioned in the first half of the year, concrete machinery in the mixing proportion of lifting, long car to replace short vehicle, sinking to three or four line city needs three aspects factors, growth in the second half of the lack of new power, it is expected that the growth rate also will slow, is expected to hold slightly posture.
Domestic concrete industry formed the duopoly pattern, Sany and ZOOMLION occupy more than 90% of the concrete pump car share. UBS Securities judge, excavator sales in the second half of 2012 will have a substantial improvement, concrete machinery will perch to wander, although further to the three or four line city penetration, but osmotic space limited.
Caterpillar has stopped in China excavator production capacity expansion plan. In the second half of the year when the prospect, caterpillar plans to continue in the market of Chinese project machine adopt the careful production and stock strategy, is expected to be available in years to gradually will stock falls to an appropriate level. However, caterpillar is prepared to respond to China Construction machinery industry boom to sudden inversion methods. Caterpillar in the semi-annual report is expected, the Chinese government is expected to steady growth measures at the end of 2012 and 2013 project machinery industry growth.
The long term, Societe Generale Securities is expected, 2012 ~2015, pump truck, mixer truck in the domestic market sales of compound annual growth rate are respectively 6%, 8%, and the industry's gross margin level can still be maintained, domestic sales revenue growth rate will be the basic and sales growth flat. In addition, with the domestic concrete machinery products ( especially the pump and mixer truck ) international competitiveness, leading enterprises overseas production base, sales and service network expansion as well as the overseas acquisition tide continuously, export sales and revenue is expected to steady growth.
" I don't understand this industry market. Construction machinery industry, especially the oligopoly has formed the company, not the lack of space for future development. " The five largest of a fund's investment director told reporters. He thought that he could put the caterpillar as example to study the domestic construction machinery listing Corporation.
This year, although the construction machinery sector as a whole to glide considerably, brokerage views are quite cautious, but the concrete machinery ultra-expected growth also brought to market some expectations.
There is still room for development
" The domestic engineering machinery, the total market value of only 196500000000 yuan, while the mechanical giant caterpillar in 2011 sales revenue of USD $60100000000. " The listed investment director said.
Over the past ten years fixed assets investment continued high growth achievements of the construction machinery industry, while four trillion yuan stimulus is to let this industry reached the top. The market generally questioned without a strong stimulus, engineering machinery is afraid will no longer. This is a concern, but in the market downturn, pessimism may be infinite zoom.
However, the global machinery giant caterpillar very bullish on China, and actively to build a plant in china. This company thinks, Chinese city is changed had decided to 2025, China still need to build more roads, airports and other infrastructure. Although the caterpillar is also facing great pressure on the stock, but the win in China as part of the company in 2011 to 2015, one of eight strategic plan.
Shun securities in the engineering is mechanical 2012 the strategy report predicts, to the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan " period, China Construction machinery industry sales will reach 900000000000 yuan, an average annual growth rate of about 17%. In the last 5 years the average growth rate of 27.5% and 23.8% of the average growth rate over the past 10 years, with the future of the industry overall scale unceasing expansion, growth rate will come down gradually, industry in the long term will enter the stage of steady growth.
In addition, the domestic engineering machinery oligopoly pattern is more and more obvious. For example, in 196500000000 yuan of the total market capitalisation, Sany, two companies ZOOMLION's market capitalization reached 138700000000 yuan, up to 70 percent.
It is worth mentioning that, along with the Sany, ZOOMLION and other companies to move towards the internationalization, product quality and brand awareness is also rising, a lot of domestic market share was recaptured. For example, from Gao Hua Securities data showed, in all of the major categories of construction machinery, excavator is the only one still by foreign brands dominate the market, but in recent years, with domestic manufacturers to quickly catch up, products and the overall development has been to promote local distributors manufacturers share from 23% in 2006 to 40% in 2011.
The short term, a mechanical engineering major worry is the cash pressure. Haitong Securities research that, due to the early lever amplification advance sales, accounts receivable in the years 2010 ~2011 once rapid growth, the domestic construction machinery industry average operating cash flow since 2011 has been negative, causing the industry cash tense situation. Trade accounts receivable and revenue ratio has exceeded the 2005 financial distress and the end of 2008 financial crisis highs.
The rapid growth of concrete machinery
Since this year, although the mechanical engineering section main listing Corporation net profit drop on average more than 25% year-on-year growth of 21.5%, but ZOOMLION. Among them, the profit contribution of huge concrete machinery.
The first half of the year, concrete machinery market strong, weak excavator market. Take ZOOMLION income proportion 58% concrete machinery income increases 52%, form the powerful support for the ZOOMLION outstanding achievement growth.
Concrete machinery, including concrete pump, concrete pump ( pump, pump ), concrete mixing station, concrete mixing Transporter and cloth rod, wide application field and the application in the engineering construction in later period, short-term new construction slowdown effect. According to the 2011 data, plate in pump and mixer with larger proportion, accounted for 57%.
SG Securities believes that 2012, pump, mixer truck sales ( domestic and export ) probability of general and keep balance basically 2011, even to achieve positive growth. Gao Hua Securities also judged, is expected in the three quarter, engineering machinery and equipment industry will from last year second half of the year 's low base a slow recovery.
Haitong Securities have different point of view, the " industry growth is slowing, up to wait for policy " mentioned in the first half of the year, concrete machinery in the mixing proportion of lifting, long car to replace short vehicle, sinking to three or four line city needs three aspects factors, growth in the second half of the lack of new power, it is expected that the growth rate also will slow, is expected to hold slightly posture.
Domestic concrete industry formed the duopoly pattern, Sany and ZOOMLION occupy more than 90% of the concrete pump car share. UBS Securities judge, excavator sales in the second half of 2012 will have a substantial improvement, concrete machinery will perch to wander, although further to the three or four line city penetration, but osmotic space limited.
Caterpillar has stopped in China excavator production capacity expansion plan. In the second half of the year when the prospect, caterpillar plans to continue in the market of Chinese project machine adopt the careful production and stock strategy, is expected to be available in years to gradually will stock falls to an appropriate level. However, caterpillar is prepared to respond to China Construction machinery industry boom to sudden inversion methods. Caterpillar in the semi-annual report is expected, the Chinese government is expected to steady growth measures at the end of 2012 and 2013 project machinery industry growth.
The long term, Societe Generale Securities is expected, 2012 ~2015, pump truck, mixer truck in the domestic market sales of compound annual growth rate are respectively 6%, 8%, and the industry's gross margin level can still be maintained, domestic sales revenue growth rate will be the basic and sales growth flat. In addition, with the domestic concrete machinery products ( especially the pump and mixer truck ) international competitiveness, leading enterprises overseas production base, sales and service network expansion as well as the overseas acquisition tide continuously, export sales and revenue is expected to steady growth.
